Welcome to the NSPL
The NSPL Mission Statement
Our contests seek to determine the World Champion of NFL Score Predicting using a system that tabulates wins and losses, taking into account straight up picks, vs spread picks, and picks against the over/under.
Who Are We?
The National Score Predicting League (NSPL) is a non-profit organization.There are over a dozen measures of accuracy that are calculated from submitted score predictions. These statistical insights, taken all together, make the NSPL the premier proving ground for anyone making regular NFL score predictions. More information can be found on the Stats & Standings page.
The NSPL is modeled in many ways after the NFL. Currently we have a Pro league. a Farm league, and a Reserve. Each League has 32 slots organized into 2 Conferences and 8 Divisions. As membership increases additional leagues may be formed. Our mid-season and final playoffs follow the NFL model, using the single game elimination process with wild cards.
We limit our league to just those who try to predict the actual scores. This does two things. It limits the entrants to those who are serious enough about the game to pick scores. Picking scores generates results in a dozen accuracy categories. These dozen categories taken all together make the NSPL (National Score Predicting League) the premier proving ground for anyone making regular NFL score predictions.
This is Not a Gambling or Betting Site!
Members of the NSPL, which was founded in 1988 by Gerry Shultz, compete for the bragging rights of being a World Champion and a chance at winning our mid-season and end of season trophies. Our membership includes professional sportswriters, bloggers, pundits, and people who love football. Our current commissioner is Hope Maruzo.
Our statistics identify records, some of which have stood for years, and provide a benchmark for anyone seeking to improve upon those achievements. No other site or league that we know of provides this. In short, this is it. This is the real deal. The world championship is on the line!!!!
The NSPL is modeled in many ways after the NFL. Currently we have a Pro league. a Farm league, and a Reserve. Each League has 32 slots organized into 2 Conferences and 8 Divisions. As membership increases additional leagues may be formed. Our mid-season and final playoffs follow the NFL model, using the single game elimination process with wild cards.
We limit our league to just those who try to predict the actual scores. This does two things. It limits the entrants to those who are serious enough about the game to pick scores. Picking scores generates results in a dozen accuracy categories. These dozen categories taken all together make the NSPL (National Score Predicting League) the premier proving ground for anyone making regular NFL score predictions.
This is Not a Gambling or Betting Site!
Members of the NSPL, which was founded in 1988 by Gerry Shultz, compete for the bragging rights of being a World Champion and a chance at winning our mid-season and end of season trophies. Our membership includes professional sportswriters, bloggers, pundits, and people who love football. Our current commissioner is Hope Maruzo.
Our statistics identify records, some of which have stood for years, and provide a benchmark for anyone seeking to improve upon those achievements. No other site or league that we know of provides this. In short, this is it. This is the real deal. The world championship is on the line!!!!
Rules & Regulations
How Am I Placed in a League?
Just as in pro sports, our leagues are tiered. We use a Pro league for our top performers, a Farm league for our promising contenders, and a Reserve system for those new to our contest. While you wait in the Reserve and learn strategies, you can hope to get invited to the Farm league. Your goal will be to have as high a composite winning percentage as you can get. When there is an opening in the the Farm League, you'll be the first to kick down that door.
No matter what tier you are in your stats will always count as much as anyone's. You'll be ranked along with everyone else. Archived past picks that are searchable on the net are helpful. For most, your career stats will start right here. There are usually mid-season openings in the Farm League. Writers retire, leave a paper, or just plain stop picking scores.
Each Farm leaguer is assigned to act as a back-up to a Pro leaguer at the discretion of the NSPL Commissioner, who is charged with the task of running a fair and orderly contest. When a game or games are missed by someone in the Pro league, the back-up's picks are inserted and at that point the individual effort that once was in play becomes a team effort.
In some cases the back-up might just pick a Thursday game here and there. In other cases the back-up might be good enough and substantial enough that they will quickly make a challenge for the starting role.This is similar to how things work when a starting QB misses time; the back-up comes in and in some cases does so well that they becomes the starter. There are guidelines below developed to manage this dynamic.
After each season, some players retire. Also, prior to the beginning of a new season the commissioner reviews the composite winning percentage for each player in the Pro and Farm league. The five Pro leaguers with the lowest composite are moved to the Farm league. The five Farm league players with the highest composite are then moved up into these 5 berths. When Farm leaguers retire, players in the Reserve are moved up to the Farm league.
Check out the League Rosters to see with whom you're competing.
No matter what tier you are in your stats will always count as much as anyone's. You'll be ranked along with everyone else. Archived past picks that are searchable on the net are helpful. For most, your career stats will start right here. There are usually mid-season openings in the Farm League. Writers retire, leave a paper, or just plain stop picking scores.
Each Farm leaguer is assigned to act as a back-up to a Pro leaguer at the discretion of the NSPL Commissioner, who is charged with the task of running a fair and orderly contest. When a game or games are missed by someone in the Pro league, the back-up's picks are inserted and at that point the individual effort that once was in play becomes a team effort.
In some cases the back-up might just pick a Thursday game here and there. In other cases the back-up might be good enough and substantial enough that they will quickly make a challenge for the starting role.This is similar to how things work when a starting QB misses time; the back-up comes in and in some cases does so well that they becomes the starter. There are guidelines below developed to manage this dynamic.
After each season, some players retire. Also, prior to the beginning of a new season the commissioner reviews the composite winning percentage for each player in the Pro and Farm league. The five Pro leaguers with the lowest composite are moved to the Farm league. The five Farm league players with the highest composite are then moved up into these 5 berths. When Farm leaguers retire, players in the Reserve are moved up to the Farm league.
Check out the League Rosters to see with whom you're competing.
Can a Farm League Back-up Challenge for a Berth in the Pro League?
Yes. These rules can be adjusted each year, but they reflect the expansion of the NSPL, the need for everyone to have a shot, and the need for the participants to be serious, active, and good at what they do.
Challenges can be made if a Pro leaguer misses multiple games or if the back-up believes he has a better composite than the Pro leaguer. Depending on the number of games missed by the Pro leaguer, different rules apply. If the Pro leaguer misses more than half of the games over a 2 week rolling period, the back-up will be allowed to challenge automatically. No request is necessary for that first time, but after that a request to challenge must be sent to the commissioner. In general the commissioner will take into account certain factors:
Challenges can be made if a Pro leaguer misses multiple games or if the back-up believes he has a better composite than the Pro leaguer. Depending on the number of games missed by the Pro leaguer, different rules apply. If the Pro leaguer misses more than half of the games over a 2 week rolling period, the back-up will be allowed to challenge automatically. No request is necessary for that first time, but after that a request to challenge must be sent to the commissioner. In general the commissioner will take into account certain factors:
- How long ago was the last challenge made and how many challenges have been granted? Most often, once a challenge is made and accepted by the commissioner, both participants will have their performance measured for the following week. The participant with the higher composite for the challenge week will take the starting role. If there is a tie the Pro leaguer keeps the role of starter. If the Farm leaguer becomes the starter, he is now in the Pro league and the former Pro leaguer steps down to the Farm league and acts as back-up to the new Pro leaguer.
Once a challenge has a result, a 6 week moratorium is placed on any further challenges from that back-up. If the original Pro leaguer does get replaced, an attempt may be made to recapture the starting role only if his season-long composite passes the new Pro leaguer's composite and the season is between its 10th and its 16th week. - How many games were missed by the Pro leaguer over the latest 2 week rolling period and how many were missed by the back-up, if any? The Farm leaguer must have picked all of the games and their season composite must be greater than the Pro leaguer in order to challenge.
- How many more games were missed by the Pro leaguer as compared to the back-up? In general if the Pro leaguer missed the full two weeks' worth of games and the Farm leaguer missed none, the back-up will be given the starting role. There may be some exceptions, as noted below.
- What were the circumstances leading to the missed games? In some cases games are missed due to factors beyond anyone's control, and the commissioner will decide on a case-by-case basis.
- Were games missed during the challenge week? If games are missed during the challenge week then the participant who picked more games gets the starting role. You've got to show up.
Play Off Rules
The Pro league and the Farm league each feature mid-season and end of the season play offs using a single game elimination format. The following rules are applied to the mid season play offs as well as the end of the year play offs.
Predictions for the game are submitted to the commissioner without either contestant having knowledge of what the other has picked. An element that gives an advantage (spelled out later) to the higher seeded player has been added to mimic the same thing you see in the NFL. In the NFL when a #6 seeded team is on the road against a #1 seeded team, the visitor experiences a very tough test. The higher seed in our contest will benefit from a formula to be explained later. The final game play off game is the only one that does not involve that aspect because it is played on a "neutral field."
Everyone knows that getting the home team advantage in the play offs in the NFL is crucial. It is also paramount in the NSPL. All of the play off games leading up to that final game will feature an advantage given to the higher seeded player.
EXCEPTION: All or Nothing Rule: If one opponent has the favorite to win over the spread while the other has the upset, then the shift won't be relevant if indeed the favorite covers OR the upset occurs. The winner will be obvious.
Predictions for the game are submitted to the commissioner without either contestant having knowledge of what the other has picked. An element that gives an advantage (spelled out later) to the higher seeded player has been added to mimic the same thing you see in the NFL. In the NFL when a #6 seeded team is on the road against a #1 seeded team, the visitor experiences a very tough test. The higher seed in our contest will benefit from a formula to be explained later. The final game play off game is the only one that does not involve that aspect because it is played on a "neutral field."
Everyone knows that getting the home team advantage in the play offs in the NFL is crucial. It is also paramount in the NSPL. All of the play off games leading up to that final game will feature an advantage given to the higher seeded player.
EXCEPTION: All or Nothing Rule: If one opponent has the favorite to win over the spread while the other has the upset, then the shift won't be relevant if indeed the favorite covers OR the upset occurs. The winner will be obvious.
How the Play Off Formula Works
The starting point is to know what seed you are and what seed your opponent is. If you are a #6 seed facing a #1 seed, good luck. Seed positioning will be very important in determining the size of the home field advantage that the higher seeded opponent enjoys. Also, the higher seed gets to pick which game will serve as his play off game, pending approval by the commissioner In general, his choice is honored. If he does not do so in the allotted time, the lower seed or the commissioner, as circumstances dictate, will make the choice.
What matters next is your prediction of who will win and by what margin. Both you and your opponent submit one score pick for that game to the commissioner blind of what the other has picked . A midpoint is found between the two predicted margins.
Example: You, the #6 seed, have picked Patriots 26 - Indianapolis 21 (Pats by 5) and your #1 seeded opponent has Patriots 23 - Indianapolis 21 (Pats by 2). The midpoint is Pats by 3.5 points.
That midpoint then gets moved by the following formula: #6 seed minus #1 seed = 5: now it is not Pats by 3.5 points but Pats by 8.5 points.
We now add a constant of 6 points to that (if the midpoint started off as a whole number, then we add another 1/2 point to prevent a tie): now it is not Pats by 8.5 points but Pats by 14.5 points.
The lower seeded player now needs the Pats to win by 15 or more. Some people believe that the push is too much. However, the lower seeded person will have ample opportunity to reduce the shift (see bullets below). Besides, how often has a #6 seed beaten a #1 seed in the NFL? .And what a story that is when that happens! We believe that this insertion of a bias variable is correct and very much a part of football. We all know what home field advantage does to a spread. This is known as the Seed Differential and is good news for the higher seed.
As mentioned above, if you are the lower seed there are ways that the big shift can be reduced or even neutralized:
NOTE: The shift increases by 2 if the higher seeded individual gets a Target or a Hit while the other side does not.
For the lower seeded player only:
Reductions to the shift stop at the point where the higher seed still has a point or a 1 1/2 point shift left, whichever prevents a tie. Only the All or Nothing Rule completely removes the shift.
It is suggested that you request a transcript of your opponent's picks prior to making your pick. That may give you insight as to what kind of picks he tends to make. That may be your first step on making a pick to beat him. Also, work this stuff out on paper using a few different picks.
Example: San Diego is favored by 1. Higher seeded Harry (#1) picks SD by 3. Lower seeded Larry (#6) picks SD by 1. The midpoint of SD by 2 gets shifted 5 points due to seed differential (SD losing by 3) and the constant of 6 (plus .5 to prevent a tie) is added to the shift to make the final midpoint SD losing by 9.5 points.
Larry would have been much better had he picked SD to lose by 1. Then the All Or Nothing Rule would have applied. All he would need is for SD to lose. Harry would do better to pick a game where the spread is big.
What matters next is your prediction of who will win and by what margin. Both you and your opponent submit one score pick for that game to the commissioner blind of what the other has picked . A midpoint is found between the two predicted margins.
Example: You, the #6 seed, have picked Patriots 26 - Indianapolis 21 (Pats by 5) and your #1 seeded opponent has Patriots 23 - Indianapolis 21 (Pats by 2). The midpoint is Pats by 3.5 points.
That midpoint then gets moved by the following formula: #6 seed minus #1 seed = 5: now it is not Pats by 3.5 points but Pats by 8.5 points.
We now add a constant of 6 points to that (if the midpoint started off as a whole number, then we add another 1/2 point to prevent a tie): now it is not Pats by 8.5 points but Pats by 14.5 points.
The lower seeded player now needs the Pats to win by 15 or more. Some people believe that the push is too much. However, the lower seeded person will have ample opportunity to reduce the shift (see bullets below). Besides, how often has a #6 seed beaten a #1 seed in the NFL? .And what a story that is when that happens! We believe that this insertion of a bias variable is correct and very much a part of football. We all know what home field advantage does to a spread. This is known as the Seed Differential and is good news for the higher seed.
As mentioned above, if you are the lower seed there are ways that the big shift can be reduced or even neutralized:
- Bullseye Rule: using our example above, if the Pats do win by 5 then the lower seed wins by virtue of the fact that he got a Bullseye, which is a correct prediction of margin of victory.
- Target Rule: if the lower seeded opponent gets half the score right, he gets what we call a Target and that neutralizes nearly all the shift (see exception below).
- Hit Rule: a hit occurs when you get the total points predicted correct. In the above case it is 47 points. If the lower seeded opponent gets a hit, nearly all the shift gets neutralized (see exception below).
- Target Rule and Hit Rule Exception: if the higher seeded opponent gets a Target or a Hit while the lower seeded opponent ALSO gets one, then the shift will be removed except for 2 points or 2 1/2 points, whichever prevents a tie. This rule supersedes any adding of points by way of Complete or Perfect games, etc. (see below).
- Complete Game Rule: a complete game occurs when you are correct in picking the winner straight up AND vs. spread. If only the lower seeded picker got a Complete Game, then the shift is reduced by 2 points. If both had the complete game then there is no shift reduction.
- Perfect Game Rule: a Perfect game occurs when you have the winning team straight up AND vs spread AND the correct side of the over/under; If the lower seed got a Perfect Game while the higher seed didn't, then the shift is reduced by 2 points, but if both opponents got a Perfect game there is no shift reduction.
NOTE: The shift increases by 2 if the higher seeded individual gets a Target or a Hit while the other side does not.
For the lower seeded player only:
- Get the straight up pick correct, and the shift goes down 1 point.
- Get the right side of the over under, and the shift goes down by 1 point.
- Get the right side of the spread, and the shift goes down by 1 point
- You may want to make sure that your score pick isn't dead on the Vegas line for the spread or the over/under because that will hurt or eliminate your chances to pick up a complete or perfect game.
Reductions to the shift stop at the point where the higher seed still has a point or a 1 1/2 point shift left, whichever prevents a tie. Only the All or Nothing Rule completely removes the shift.
It is suggested that you request a transcript of your opponent's picks prior to making your pick. That may give you insight as to what kind of picks he tends to make. That may be your first step on making a pick to beat him. Also, work this stuff out on paper using a few different picks.
Example: San Diego is favored by 1. Higher seeded Harry (#1) picks SD by 3. Lower seeded Larry (#6) picks SD by 1. The midpoint of SD by 2 gets shifted 5 points due to seed differential (SD losing by 3) and the constant of 6 (plus .5 to prevent a tie) is added to the shift to make the final midpoint SD losing by 9.5 points.
Larry would have been much better had he picked SD to lose by 1. Then the All Or Nothing Rule would have applied. All he would need is for SD to lose. Harry would do better to pick a game where the spread is big.
How about a Diagram?
Example: here we see that New Orleans is favored by 3 over the Cowboys:
The most important concept driving the All or Nothing Rule is that one pick was spot on while the other pick was a total failure.
This can only happen if one pick was the favorite over the spread while the other pick was a predicted upset. If one guy's pick was correct in terms of straight up and beating the spread, the other guy's pick was totally wrong.
What the diagram shows is that if either opponent picks inside the green box, then the All or Nothing Rule is out the window because they will be at least partially right, either straight up or versus spread. This will hurt if you went into the contest with a high seed differential.. If High-Seeded Harry chooses a game with a small spread, he may be borrowing trouble. Larry might want to pick outside of the green box above,hoping for the All or Nothing Rule to be applied, while Harry has an incentive to pick in the box.
This can only happen if one pick was the favorite over the spread while the other pick was a predicted upset. If one guy's pick was correct in terms of straight up and beating the spread, the other guy's pick was totally wrong.
What the diagram shows is that if either opponent picks inside the green box, then the All or Nothing Rule is out the window because they will be at least partially right, either straight up or versus spread. This will hurt if you went into the contest with a high seed differential.. If High-Seeded Harry chooses a game with a small spread, he may be borrowing trouble. Larry might want to pick outside of the green box above,hoping for the All or Nothing Rule to be applied, while Harry has an incentive to pick in the box.